TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Brooksby vs S. Baez (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with S. Baez favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Brooksby | S. Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.3% | 80.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.7% | 78.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
20.5% | 79.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.0% | 74.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Brooksby | hard | 1729 | 86–55 | 141 |
| S. Baez | clay | 1776 | 134–76 | 210 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
S. Baez leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | S. Baez | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 14, 2026 | Auckland | hard | S. Baez | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Wong | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Winter | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Moutet | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | I. Buse | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used