TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Tsitsipas vs T. Machac (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with S. Tsitsipas favoured at 1.67.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Tsitsipas | T. Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.9% | 35.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
66.8% | 33.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.6% | 63.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.1% | 43.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
56.8% | 43.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Tsitsipas | hard | 1815 | 133–83 | 216 |
| T. Machac | hard | 1857 | 143–75 | 218 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
T. Machac leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | T. Machac | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 22, 2026 | Australian Open | hard | T. Machac | 3 - 1 |
| Oct. 26, 2023 | ATP Vienna | hard | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 |
| W | K. Rice | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | May 27, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 3 - 0 | May 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | May 7, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 1 | April 24, 2026 |
| W | F. Comesana | 2 - 1 | April 22, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used