TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Boulter vs E. Lys (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with K. Boulter favoured at 1.85.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Boulter | E. Lys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.0% | 59.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.9% | 74.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
67.2% | 32.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.7% | 55.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Boulter | hard | 1758 | 102–70 | 172 |
| E. Lys | hard | 1782 | 89–49 | 138 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
E. Lys leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Lys | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 20, 2025 | Tokyo | hard | E. Lys | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Cross | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. C. Grant | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Vekic | 0 - 2 | June 13, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 1 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used