E. Svitolina vs A. Kalinskaya — Prediction & Analysis

US Open · · Sept. 4, 2026 · 15:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Kalinskaya +4.5 (game handicap) at 1.84 in E. Svitolina vs A. Kalinskaya (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds E. Svitolina 1.40 · A. Kalinskaya 2.90

Bot bet

A. Kalinskaya +4.5 (game handicap) @ 1.84 · 0.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: E. Svitolina · A. Kalinskaya · head-to-head record · US Open

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method E. Svitolina A. Kalinskaya
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
65.8% 34.2%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
71.5% 28.5%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
67.3% 32.7%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
65.8% 34.2%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
67.4% 32.6%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
E. Svitolina hard1988 103–56159
A. Kalinskaya hard1887 131–81212

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 5, 2026.

Head to head

E. Svitolina leads 4–2 over 6 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Sept. 5, 2026US OpenhardA. Kalinskaya2 - 1
June 16, 2026BerlingrassE. Svitolina1 - 0
Feb. 11, 2026WTA DohahardA. Kalinskaya2 - 0
Aug. 2, 2025MontrealhardE. Svitolina2 - 0
Feb. 16, 2025DubaihardE. Svitolina2 - 0

Recent form

E. Svitolina

L A. Kalinskaya 1 - 2 Sept. 5, 2026
W M. Joint 2 - 1 Sept. 3, 2026
W S. Sierra 2 - 0 Aug. 30, 2026
L Xiy. Wang Walk Over Aug. 18, 2026
W T. Valentova 1 - 2 Aug. 17, 2026

A. Kalinskaya

L E. Navarro 0 - 2 Sept. 7, 2026
W E. Svitolina 1 - 2 Sept. 5, 2026
W Xin. Wang 1 - 2 Sept. 2, 2026
W A. Blinkova 0 - 2 Aug. 31, 2026
L S. Cirstea 1 - 1 Aug. 17, 2026

All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →