TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Kalinskaya +4.5 (game handicap) at 1.84 in E. Svitolina vs A. Kalinskaya (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Svitolina | A. Kalinskaya |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.8% | 34.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.5% | 28.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
67.3% | 32.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.8% | 34.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.4% | 32.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Svitolina | hard | 1987 | 109–59 | 168 |
| A. Kalinskaya | hard | 1876 | 131–82 | 213 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 11, 2026.
E. Svitolina leads 4–2 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 5, 2026 | US Open | hard | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 |
| June 16, 2026 | Berlin | grass | E. Svitolina | 1 - 0 |
| Feb. 11, 2026 | WTA Doha | hard | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 2, 2025 | Montreal | hard | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 16, 2025 | Dubai | hard | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 |
| W | K. Muchova | 2 - 1 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 2 - 0 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | S. Kartal | 1 - 2 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| W | H. Guo | 2 - 0 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 1 - 1 | Oct. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| W | E. Svitolina | 1 - 2 | Sept. 5, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →