TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Y. Starodubtseva vs S. Waltert (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with Y. Starodubtseva favoured at 1.73.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Starodubtseva | S. Waltert |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.9% | 74.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
16.8% | 83.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
33.5% | 66.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
25.4% | 74.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
54.8% | 45.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Starodubtseva | hard | 1636 | 69–53 | 122 |
| S. Waltert | clay | 1732 | 123–80 | 203 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
S. Waltert leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | S. Waltert | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Joint | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | S. Stephens | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Zakharova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used