M. Keys vs Q. Zheng — Prediction & Analysis

US Open · · Sept. 5, 2026 · 15:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Q. Zheng +2.5 (game handicap) at 1.93 in M. Keys vs Q. Zheng (US Open on 2026-09-05). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds M. Keys 1.56 · Q. Zheng 2.20

Bot bet

Q. Zheng +2.5 (game handicap) @ 1.93 · 0.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: M. Keys · Q. Zheng · head-to-head record · US Open

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method M. Keys Q. Zheng
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
59.2% 40.8%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
52.6% 47.4%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
24.7% 75.3%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
59.2% 40.8%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
58.5% 41.5%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
M. Keys hard1907 97–59156
Q. Zheng hard1953 128–56184

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 5, 2026.

Head to head

Q. Zheng leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Sept. 5, 2026US OpenhardQ. Zheng2 - 1
March 22, 2026MiamihardQ. Zheng2 - 1
Aug. 2, 2023WTA WashingtonhardM. Keys2 - 0

Recent form

M. Keys

L Q. Zheng 1 - 2 Sept. 5, 2026
W A. Bondar 2 - 1 Sept. 3, 2026
W A. Korneeva 2 - 0 Sept. 1, 2026
L S. Bejlek 2 - 1 Aug. 21, 2026
W Xiy. Wang 2 - 0 Aug. 19, 2026

Q. Zheng

L E. Rybakina 1 - 2 Sept. 9, 2026
W I. Swiatek 0 - 2 Sept. 7, 2026
W M. Keys 1 - 2 Sept. 5, 2026
W Y. Putintseva 2 - 1 Sept. 3, 2026
W K. Liutova 2 - 1 Aug. 31, 2026

All Sept. 5, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →