TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in V. Mboko vs M. Keys (French Open on 2026-05-30) — the market is efficient, with V. Mboko favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | V. Mboko | M. Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
27.8% | 72.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
22.1% | 77.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
34.9% | 65.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.3% | 71.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.0% | 43.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 24, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Keys | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 15, 2026 | WTA Adelaide | hard | V. Mboko | 2 - 1 |
| L | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 1 | June 10, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 1 - 2 | May 30, 2026 |
| W | K. Siniakova | 2 - 1 | May 28, 2026 |
| W | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 0 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | May 23, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 30, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used