TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Faria vs F. Tiafoe (French Open on 2026-05-30) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.64.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Faria | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.4% | 43.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.5% | 37.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.5% | 57.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.4% | 58.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 2 |
| L | C. O'Connell | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | G. Bueno | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 30, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used