TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Cobolli vs L. Tien (French Open on 2026-05-30) — the market is efficient, with F. Cobolli favoured at 1.54.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Cobolli | L. Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.0% | 41.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.6% | 25.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.4% | 39.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.7% | 35.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.2% | 36.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cobolli | clay | 1896 | 132–82 | 214 |
| L. Tien | hard | 1905 | 155–56 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 15, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Cobolli | 3 - 0 |
| Sept. 28, 2025 | Beijing | hard | L. Tien | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | K. Khachanov | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 30, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used