TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Townsend vs N. Brancaccio (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with T. Townsend favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Townsend | N. Brancaccio |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.7% | 58.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
32.8% | 67.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.3% | 62.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
73.4% | 26.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Townsend | hard | 1840 | 79–48 | 127 |
| N. Brancaccio | clay | 1632 | 175–127 | 302 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
T. Townsend leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | T. Townsend | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 1 | June 21, 2026 |
| W | M. Trevisan | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | B. Palicova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | N. M. Schunk | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Stusek | Walk Over | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Buyukakcay | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Ristic | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used