TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Maria vs E. Mertens (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with E. Mertens favoured at 1.06.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Maria | E. Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.6% | 64.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
16.0% | 84.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
31.3% | 68.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
9.6% | 90.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
| E. Mertens | hard | 1855 | 118–77 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
E. Mertens leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 30, 2025 | Singapore | hard | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 |
| April 16, 2024 | WTA Stuttgart | clay | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Siegemund | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used