TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Gaston vs G. Monfils (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with H. Gaston favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Gaston | G. Monfils |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.7% | 44.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.8% | 47.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Gaston | hard | 1716 | 113–88 | 201 |
| G. Monfils | hard | 1806 | 92–54 | 146 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
H. Gaston leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | H. Gaston | 3 - 2 |
| L | D. Chan | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 0 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | H. Gaston | 3 - 2 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 0 | April 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 0 - 2 | April 7, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | April 5, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used