TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Hijikata vs T. Paul (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.05.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Hijikata | T. Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.2% | 80.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
16.7% | 83.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
31.9% | 68.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
22.6% | 77.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
8.7% | 91.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hijikata | hard | 1725 | 183–115 | 298 |
| T. Paul | hard | 1894 | 154–80 | 234 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
T. Paul leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | T. Paul | 3 - 1 |
| Jan. 9, 2025 | ATP Adelaide | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Munar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. De Jong | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | J. Lehecka | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used