TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Lukas vs D. Semenistaja (Makarska on 2026-06-03) — the market is efficient, with D. Semenistaja favoured at 1.45.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Lukas | D. Semenistaja |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.9% | 74.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
14.1% | 85.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.9% | 54.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.6% | 71.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.6% | 63.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Lukas | clay | 1481 | 150–130 | 280 |
| D. Semenistaja | clay | 1653 | 148–83 | 231 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
D. Semenistaja leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 4, 2026 | Makarska | clay | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 1 |
| April 24, 2025 | W100 Oeiras | clay | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 0 |
| May 6, 2023 | ITF W60 Prague Women | clay | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Bennemann | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Tikhonova | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Jakupovic | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Herrero Linana | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | T. J. Brockmann | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | M. Ristic | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Riera | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 1 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Ruzic | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 3, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used