TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Lazaro Garcia vs L. Samson (Makarska on 2026-06-03) — the market is efficient, with L. Samson favoured at 1.63.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Lazaro Garcia | L. Samson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.6% | 47.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.4% | 48.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.6% | 56.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lazaro Garcia | clay | 1688 | 116–82 | 198 |
| L. Samson | hard | 1613 | 103–62 | 165 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 3, 2026 | Makarska | clay | A. Lazaro Garcia | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 28, 2025 | W50+H Pazardzhik 2 | clay | L. Samson | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Paquet | 1 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Pigossi | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | N. Podoroska | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Z. Kulambayeva | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Bronzetti | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Soboleva | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
All June 3, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used