TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Griekspoor vs M. Arnaldi (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with M. Arnaldi favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Griekspoor | M. Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.3% | 63.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.8% | 65.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.6% | 54.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.9% | 61.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.0% | 55.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Griekspoor | hard | 1796 | 86–76 | 162 |
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
M. Arnaldi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Arnaldi | 3 - 1 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Moutet | 2 - 3 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used