TennisEdge's AI bot is backing F. Cerundolo +6.5 (game handicap) at 2.22 in T. Fritz vs F. Cerundolo (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | F. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.5% | 30.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
75.1% | 24.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
39.6% | 60.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.9% | 32.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
83.9% | 16.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Fritz | hard | 1946 | 184–96 | 280 |
| F. Cerundolo | hard | 1827 | 73–64 | 137 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 5, 2026.
F. Cerundolo leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 5, 2026 | US Open | hard | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 2 |
| May 1, 2024 | ATP Madrid | clay | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 |
| June 3, 2023 | ATP French Open | clay | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 1 |
| L | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 3 | Sept. 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Bellucci | 3 - 0 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | Dar. Blanch | 3 - 0 | Sept. 1, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 21, 2026 |
| W | C. O'Connell | 2 - 0 | Aug. 20, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 1 - 3 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 2 - 3 | Sept. 5, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 2 - 3 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Misolic | 0 - 3 | Sept. 1, 2026 |
| L | N. Borges | 2 - 0 | Aug. 16, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →