TennisEdge's AI bot is backing F. Cerundolo +6.5 (game handicap) at 2.22 in T. Fritz vs F. Cerundolo (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | F. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.5% | 30.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
75.1% | 24.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
39.6% | 60.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.9% | 32.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
83.9% | 16.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Fritz | hard | 1969 | 193–101 | 294 |
| F. Cerundolo | hard | 1804 | 78–70 | 148 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
F. Cerundolo leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 5, 2026 | US Open | hard | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 2 |
| May 1, 2024 | ATP Madrid | clay | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 |
| June 3, 2023 | ATP French Open | clay | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 1 |
| W | H. Rune | Walk Over | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 1 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 1 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Griekspoor | 1 - 2 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Chidekh | 0 - 2 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Damm | 0 - 2 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →