TennisEdge's AI bot is backing D. Merida Aguilar (moneyline) at 4.22 in T. Fritz vs D. Merida Aguilar (Cincinnati on 2026-08-18). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | D. Merida Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.0% | 30.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.4% | 41.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
72.3% | 27.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.6% | 30.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.2% | 23.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Fritz | hard | 1946 | 184–96 | 280 |
| D. Merida Aguilar | hard | 1841 | 65–43 | 108 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 5, 2026.
T. Fritz leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 18, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| L | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 3 | Sept. 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Bellucci | 3 - 0 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | Dar. Blanch | 3 - 0 | Sept. 1, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 21, 2026 |
| W | C. O'Connell | 2 - 0 | Aug. 20, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 3 - 0 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Rublev | 3 - 1 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 18, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | Aug. 16, 2026 |
All Aug. 18, 2026 results & picks →