TennisEdge's AI bot is backing D. Merida Aguilar (moneyline) at 4.22 in T. Fritz vs D. Merida Aguilar (Cincinnati on 2026-08-18). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | D. Merida Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.0% | 30.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.4% | 41.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
72.3% | 27.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.6% | 30.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.2% | 23.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Fritz | hard | 1969 | 193–101 | 294 |
| D. Merida Aguilar | hard | 1812 | 66–46 | 112 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
T. Fritz leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 18, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| W | H. Rune | Walk Over | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 1 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 1 - 2 | Sept. 19, 2026 |
All Aug. 18, 2026 results & picks →