TennisEdge's AI bot is backing K. Siniakova (moneyline) at 3.60 in K. Siniakova vs M. Keys (Cincinnati on 2026-08-18). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Siniakova | M. Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.1% | 67.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.5% | 72.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.5% | 61.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.1% | 67.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.1% | 71.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Siniakova | hard | 1806 | 103–80 | 183 |
| M. Keys | hard | 1907 | 97–59 | 156 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 3, 2026.
M. Keys leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 18, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 26, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 1 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 0 - 2 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | Aug. 18, 2026 |
| W | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 1 | Aug. 16, 2026 |
| L | K. Rakhimova | 1 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
All Aug. 18, 2026 results & picks →