TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Droguet vs J. Mensik (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with J. Mensik favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Droguet | J. Mensik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.6% | 43.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
61.4% | 38.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.9% | 45.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Droguet | clay | 1787 | 133–65 | 198 |
| J. Mensik | hard | 1898 | 117–56 | 173 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
J. Mensik leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Mensik | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 31, 2023 | ATP US Open | hard | J. Mensik | 3 - 1 |
| Feb. 13, 2023 | Cherbourg | hard | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 19, 2022 | M25 Heraklion | hard | J. Mensik | 2 - 0 |
| W | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Svajda | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Samuel | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used