TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Ofner vs L. Darderi (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with L. Darderi favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Ofner | L. Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
21.9% | 78.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.8% | 73.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
23.5% | 76.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
24.0% | 76.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.1% | 71.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ofner | clay | 1701 | 100–69 | 169 |
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
L. Darderi leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | L. Darderi | 3 - 0 |
| June 25, 2024 | ATP Mallorca | grass | S. Ofner | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 8, 2024 | Cordoba | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | D. Rincon | 2 - 1 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | N. Gombos | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used