TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Ofner vs A. Michelsen (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with S. Ofner favoured at 1.32.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Ofner | A. Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
71.5% | 28.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.4% | 25.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
71.3% | 28.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.8% | 28.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ofner | clay | 1701 | 100–69 | 169 |
| A. Michelsen | hard | 1895 | 148–85 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
S. Ofner leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | S. Ofner | 2 - 0 |
| June 27, 2024 | ATP Mallorca | grass | S. Ofner | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 22, 2023 | ATP Winston-Salem | hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | D. Rincon | 2 - 1 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | N. Gombos | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used