TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Johnson vs E. Arango (Eastbourne on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with E. Arango favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Johnson | E. Arango |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.0% | 26.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.1% | 72.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.0% | 26.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.7% | 66.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Johnson | clay | 1474 | 13–6 | 19 |
| E. Arango | clay | 1556 | 69–65 | 134 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 14, 2026.
E. Arango leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | E. Arango | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. Hunter | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | K. K. Thandi | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | C. Dolehide | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | H. Kaji | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Boisson | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | L. Nilsson | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Gasanova | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used