TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Arnaldi vs T. Samuel (Eastbourne on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with M. Arnaldi favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | T. Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.6% | 57.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.7% | 56.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.2% | 54.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
| T. Samuel | hard | 1840 | 101–32 | 133 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
M. Arnaldi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | J. D. Hara Friend | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Pinnington Jones | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Broom | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | Y. H. Hsu | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used