TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Stearns vs K. Birrell (Eastbourne on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with K. Birrell favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Stearns | K. Birrell |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.8% | 59.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.6% | 56.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.5% | 56.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
46.2% | 53.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Stearns | hard | 1745 | 97–74 | 171 |
| K. Birrell | hard | 1773 | 149–98 | 247 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
P. Stearns leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | K. Birrell | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 28, 2026 | WTA Austin | hard | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 |
| April 22, 2025 | Madrid | clay | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Kalieva | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Stoiana | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | V. Golubic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ma | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | P. Marcinko | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used