TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Baez vs R. A. Burruchaga (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with S. Baez favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Baez | R. A. Burruchaga |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
31.3% | 68.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.6% | 62.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.9% | 64.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Baez | clay | 1776 | 134–76 | 210 |
| R. A. Burruchaga | clay | 1802 | 200–127 | 327 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | R. A. Burruchaga | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 18, 2025 | ATP Rio de Janeiro | clay | S. Baez | 2 - 0 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Wawrinka | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used