TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Zarazua vs M. Thamm (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-20) — the market is efficient, with R. Zarazua favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Zarazua | M. Thamm |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.7% | 36.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
78.2% | 21.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.5% | 26.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.3% | 21.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Zarazua | hard | 1720 | 110–84 | 194 |
| M. Thamm | clay | 1488 | 27–12 | 39 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
R. Zarazua leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 20, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | Y. Qu | 2 - 1 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | N. Lagaev | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | H. Ayrault | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | E. Dotsenko | 2 - 0 | June 3, 2026 |
All June 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used