TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Trevisan vs T. Townsend (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-20) — the market is efficient, with T. Townsend favoured at 1.08.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Trevisan | T. Townsend |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.4% | 80.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.1% | 66.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
22.3% | 77.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
11.9% | 88.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Trevisan | clay | 1608 | 75–57 | 132 |
| T. Townsend | hard | 1840 | 79–48 | 127 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
T. Townsend leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 20, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | T. Townsend | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 25, 2024 | WTA Beijing | hard | T. Townsend | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 26, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | T. Townsend | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 13, 2023 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | M. Trevisan | 2 - 1 |
| L | E. R. Bertea | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | N. Brancaccio | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | F. Curmi | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Pace | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | E. R. Bertea | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 1 | June 21, 2026 |
| W | M. Trevisan | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 | May 26, 2026 |
All June 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used