TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Badosa vs S. Kraus (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-20) — the market is efficient, with P. Badosa favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Badosa | S. Kraus |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
82.5% | 17.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.7% | 42.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
82.5% | 17.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.3% | 21.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
P. Badosa leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 12, 2026 | Austin | hard | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Zidansek | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Charaeva | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | E. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used