TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Bautista-Agut vs F. Maestrelli (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with R. Bautista-Agut favoured at 1.59.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Bautista-Agut | F. Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.4% | 47.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.0% | 37.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.8% | 57.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.8% | 47.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
59.6% | 40.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Bautista-Agut | hard | 1665 | 76–77 | 153 |
| F. Maestrelli | clay | 1524 | 104–100 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
R. Bautista-Agut leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | R. Bautista-Agut | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | June 14, 2026 |
| W | B. Sanchez Martinez | 0 - 2 | June 13, 2026 |
| L | M. Giron | 0 - 2 | June 9, 2026 |
| L | J. P. Varillas | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Milic | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Basing | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Galarneau | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used