TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. A. Burruchaga vs M. Bellucci (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with R. A. Burruchaga favoured at 1.41.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. A. Burruchaga | M. Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
81.3% | 18.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
81.8% | 18.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.4% | 22.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.2% | 32.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. A. Burruchaga | clay | 1802 | 200–127 | 327 |
| M. Bellucci | hard | 1722 | 152–98 | 250 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
M. Bellucci leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Bellucci | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Blockx | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Wawrinka | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Bolt | 2 - 1 | June 14, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used