TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Stearns vs J. Tjen (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with P. Stearns favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Stearns | J. Tjen |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.1% | 33.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
82.5% | 17.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.3% | 25.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.6% | 32.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Stearns | hard | 1745 | 97–74 | 171 |
| J. Tjen | hard | 1759 | 106–31 | 137 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
P. Stearns leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Kalieva | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Stoiana | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Sramkova | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used