TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Marcinko vs E. Lys (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with P. Marcinko favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Marcinko | E. Lys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.9% | 33.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.9% | 20.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
69.7% | 30.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
72.1% | 27.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.6% | 47.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Marcinko | clay | 1727 | 89–46 | 135 |
| E. Lys | hard | 1782 | 89–49 | 138 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 17, 2026.
E. Lys leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | E. Lys | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | N. Podoroska | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | S. Kenin | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 1 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used