TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Carreno-Busta vs J. Lehecka (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with J. Lehecka favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Carreno-Busta | J. Lehecka |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.9% | 45.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
48.8% | 51.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.6% | 39.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.8% | 45.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.4% | 74.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Carreno-Busta | hard | 1742 | 81–51 | 132 |
| J. Lehecka | hard | 1890 | 126–83 | 209 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Feb. 25, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | P. Carreno-Busta | 3 - 0 |
| Feb. 25, 2026 | Dubai | hard | J. Lehecka | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Dodig | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | C. Wong | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 1 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | J. Munar | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Popyrin | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used