TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Carreno-Busta vs A. Tabilo (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with A. Tabilo favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Carreno-Busta | A. Tabilo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
37.4% | 62.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.2% | 49.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.7% | 57.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.4% | 64.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Carreno-Busta | hard | 1742 | 81–51 | 132 |
| A. Tabilo | clay | 1825 | 125–68 | 193 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Feb. 25, 2026.
P. Carreno-Busta leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 17, 2025 | Olbia | hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 1, 2022 | ATP ATP Cup | hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Dodig | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used