TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Gea +2.5 (game handicap) at 1.93 in M. Zheng vs A. Gea (US Open on 2026-09-05). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Zheng | A. Gea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.7% | 47.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.8% | 54.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.4% | 51.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.7% | 49.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.3% | 44.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
A. Gea leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 5, 2026 | US Open | hard | A. Gea | 3 - 2 |
| July 30, 2026 | Los Cabos | hard | A. Gea | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 9, 2026 | Noumea | hard | A. Gea | 2 - 1 |
| W | O. Baris | 0 - 2 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | G. Hussey | 1 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | J. K. Trotter | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | Y. Wu | 2 - 0 | Oct. 7, 2026 |
| L | N. Mejia | 0 - 2 | Oct. 6, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 0 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 0 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| W | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
All Sept. 5, 2026 results & picks →