TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Lombardini vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (Parma on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with J. Bouzas Maneiro favoured at 1.04.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Lombardini | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.3% | 74.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
12.1% | 87.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.1% | 57.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
26.5% | 73.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
8.6% | 91.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Lombardini | clay | 1385 | 12–16 | 28 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
J. Bouzas Maneiro leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Parma | clay | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Rinaldo Persson | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Rocchetti | 1 - 2 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | B. Ricci | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | M. Tona | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | I. Balus | 2 - 0 | June 10, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used