TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in G. Ce vs D. Chiesa (Parma on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with D. Chiesa favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Ce | D. Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.2% | 58.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.4% | 54.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.4% | 42.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.0% | 52.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.5% | 64.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
G. Ce leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Parma | clay | D. Chiesa | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 28, 2024 | ITF W35 Trieste Women | clay | G. Ce | 2 - 1 |
| June 27, 2024 | ITF W35 Tarvisio Women | clay | G. Ce | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Mintegi Del Olmo | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Lim | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Shapatava | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Ristic | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Matoula | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Prisacariu | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | Y. Kabbaj | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | L. Bronzetti | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | L. Radivojevic | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | L. Gjorcheska | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used