TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Linette vs T. Maria (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with M. Linette favoured at 1.31.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Linette | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.3% | 38.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
75.5% | 24.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.4% | 31.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.8% | 27.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Linette | hard | 1745 | 119–97 | 216 |
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 24, 2026 | WTA Merida | hard | M. Linette | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Zhao | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Chwalinska | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used