AI match preview for M. Kostyuk vs T. Townsend (Guadalajara on 2026-09-16): models, form and the market read. No bot verdict is published for this match yet. M. Kostyuk is the market favourite at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kostyuk | T. Townsend |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.5% | 31.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.0% | 35.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.0% | 43.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.9% | 32.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1933 | 126–75 | 201 |
| T. Townsend | hard | 1890 | 85–51 | 136 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 6, 2026.
M. Kostyuk leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 8, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 10, 2024 | WTA Adelaide | hard | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Stephens | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Hunter | 2 - 0 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 | Aug. 22, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 1 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | T. Preston | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | M. Chwalinska | 0 - 2 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
All Sept. 16, 2026 results & picks →