TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Townsend +3.0 (game handicap) at 2.44 in M. Kostyuk vs T. Townsend (Guadalajara on 2026-09-16). Result: VOID.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kostyuk | T. Townsend |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.5% | 31.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.0% | 35.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.0% | 43.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.9% | 32.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1865 | 127–81 | 208 |
| T. Townsend | hard | 1875 | 85–52 | 137 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
M. Kostyuk leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 16, 2026 | Guadalajara | hard | M. Kostyuk | Walk Over |
| March 8, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 10, 2024 | WTA Adelaide | hard | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. Gauff | 0 - 2 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 0 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Sakkari | 2 - 1 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | Walk Over | Sept. 16, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 1 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | T. Preston | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
All Sept. 16, 2026 results & picks →