AI match preview for K. Day vs L. Samsonova (Guadalajara on 2026-09-16): models, form and the market read. No bot verdict is published for this match yet. L. Samsonova is the market favourite at 1.35.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Day | L. Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.9% | 66.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.0% | 67.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.9% | 48.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.6% | 60.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.2% | 65.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Day | hard | 1699 | 124–88 | 212 |
| L. Samsonova | hard | 1790 | 34–35 | 69 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 14, 2026.
| W | E. Kalieva | 0 - 2 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| L | E. Jacquemot | 0 - 2 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| W | S. Lamens | 2 - 0 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| L | J. Pareja | 0 - 2 | Aug. 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 2 - 1 | Aug. 15, 2026 |
| W | E. Jacquemot | 0 - 2 | Sept. 15, 2026 |
| L | M. Joint | 2 - 1 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | Aug. 16, 2026 |
| W | Y. Putintseva | 1 - 2 | Aug. 14, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 1 - 2 | Aug. 9, 2026 |
All Sept. 16, 2026 results & picks →