TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs C. Bucsa (Strasbourg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.17.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | C. Bucsa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.7% | 25.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.3% | 30.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.2% | 18.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Uchijima | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | P. Kudermetova | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | S. Bandecchi | 2 - 1 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 2 - 1 | May 19, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 0 - 2 | May 7, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used