TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Kasatkina vs L. Samsonova (Strasbourg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with D. Kasatkina favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Kasatkina | L. Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.6% | 33.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.1% | 48.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.3% | 37.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.6% | 47.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
| L. Samsonova | hard | 1750 | 30–32 | 62 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
L. Samsonova leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 0 |
| July 5, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 |
| March 11, 2025 | Indian Wells | hard | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used