TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Frech vs T. Gibson (Strasbourg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with M. Frech favoured at 1.90.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Frech | T. Gibson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.1% | 33.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
76.6% | 23.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
71.4% | 28.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Frech leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | M. Frech | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 26, 2025 | US Open | hard | M. Frech | 2 - 0 |
| W | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 22, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used