TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Kessler vs J. Cristian (Strasbourg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with M. Kessler favoured at 1.90.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kessler | J. Cristian |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.4% | 61.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.7% | 72.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.8% | 44.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.6% | 59.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kessler | hard | 1792 | 101–54 | 155 |
| J. Cristian | hard | 1839 | 72–67 | 139 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Cristian leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | J. Cristian | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 7, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | J. Cristian | 2 - 1 |
| April 22, 2024 | WTA Madrid | clay | J. Cristian | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Brace | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Boulter | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 0 - 2 | June 8, 2026 |
| L | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 1 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | V. Mboko | 2 - 1 | May 22, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used