TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Kessler (moneyline) in M. Kessler vs M. Keys (Eastbourne on 2026-06-25).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kessler | M. Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
31.0% | 69.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.4% | 64.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.3% | 69.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.2% | 67.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.2% | 73.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kessler | grass | 1666 | 10–9 | 19 |
| M. Keys | grass | 1905 | 33–11 | 44 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 1, 2026.
M. Keys leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 6, 2026 | WTA Brisbane | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 2 - 0 | Aug. 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | C. Brace | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →