TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Draper (moneyline) in J. Draper vs G. Diallo (Eastbourne on 2026-06-25).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Draper | G. Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.9% | 32.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
78.3% | 21.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.6% | 34.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
66.4% | 33.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
J. Draper leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | J. Draper | 2 - 0 |
| L | U. Humbert | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Pinnington Jones | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Giron | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 1 - 1 | April 13, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies a 5.5% edge on Diallo, supported by market trend analysis showing Draper is over-priced due to the book chasing his form while his ELO results have actually declined. While Diallo's fatigue (6h court time) is a valid risk factor, the discrepancy between the market's 72% implied probability and the model's 61% consensus is too large to ignore. We predict Draper wins, but recommend a value bet on Diallo as the payout justifies the risk.