TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Kecmanovic (moneyline) in M. Kecmanovic vs F. Marozsan (Mallorca on 2026-06-25).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kecmanovic | F. Marozsan |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.9% | 43.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.0% | 67.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
74.2% | 25.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.7% | 45.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.5% | 49.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kecmanovic | hard | 1734 | 98–98 | 196 |
| F. Marozsan | clay | 1759 | 115–59 | 174 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
F. Marozsan leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | F. Marozsan | 2 - 0 |
| June 16, 2026 | Halle | grass | F. Marozsan | 2 - 1 |
| May 24, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Kecmanovic | 3 - 0 |
| June 16, 2025 | Halle | grass | F. Marozsan | 2 - 1 |
| W | M. Zheng | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | S. Baez | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
The Consensus Model identifies a 4.6% edge on Marozsan, driven primarily by the Machine Learning model which assigns him a 67% win probability. This statistical confidence is qualitatively confirmed by the H2H data: Marozsan defeated Kecmanovic just 9 days ago on grass (Halle, 2-1), demonstrating a clear tactical matchup advantage. While the Elo model and Market Trend warning suggest Kecmanovic is the 'right' side based on long-term ratings, the recency and specificity of the H2H result on grass overrides general ratings. The market's hesitation to flip the odds implies they are weighing Kecmanovic's 'Specialist' status too heavily while ignoring the most recent evidence.