TennisEdge's AI bot is backing G. Dimitrov (moneyline) in G. Dimitrov vs A. Davidovich Fokina (Mallorca on 2026-06-25).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Dimitrov | A. Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.3% | 31.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.9% | 39.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.3% | 60.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Dimitrov | hard | 1828 | 105–74 | 179 |
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
A. Davidovich Fokina leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 |
| April 16, 2022 | Monte Carlo | clay | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Borges | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 2 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 3 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies Dimitrov as a slight favorite (51.5%) on grass, contrasting sharply with the market's 42.4% implied probability. This divergence stems from Dimitrov's elite grass-court rating (Elo 1788) and strong surface form (4-1), which the market appears to discount due to his poor overall season record (5-10). While fatigue is a concern after playing yesterday, the 2.36 odds offer substantial value against a lower-rated grass opponent in Davidovich Fokina.