TennisEdge's AI bot is backing L. Darderi (moneyline) in L. Darderi vs N. Borges (Mallorca on 2026-06-25).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Darderi | N. Borges |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.4% | 49.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
39.8% | 60.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.6% | 51.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.7% | 60.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
| N. Borges | hard | 1773 | 128–74 | 202 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 25, 2026.
N. Borges leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 17, 2026 | Bastad | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| June 25, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | N. Borges | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 5, 2025 | Auckland | hard | N. Borges | 2 - 1 |
| April 15, 2022 | Barletta | clay | N. Borges | 2 - 1 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Kovacevic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | O. Luz | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | G. Dimitrov | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies a substantial 9.5% edge on Darderi, viewing the match as a near coin-flip (49.1%) despite the market pricing him as a distinct underdog (39.7%). Qualitative analysis validates this edge: Borges has logged heavy court time recently (6h 26m vs Darderi's 1h 20m), creating a fatigue disadvantage, while Darderi's serve on grass (82.7% hold) is elite. Although the consensus narrowly favors Borges due to market shrinkage, the value lies with the fresher, strong-serving underdog.